Somalia’s third republic could end if things don’t change, warns Afyare Elmi
Issue #11: All of Somalia’s former living presidents also united to condemn the alleged misuse and sale of public land by the government.
Good morning everyone and welcome to another issue of Acacia, Geeska’s weekly East Africa newsletter!
The symbolism at US President Donald Trump’s meeting with European leaders earlier this week spoke volumes about who was in charge. Trump sat firmly at his desk, while the presidents and prime ministers of Europe’s most powerful nations sat opposite him like subordinates summoned to a performance review. It wasn’t missed on Ken Opalo, an expert on African politics and associate professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service who said: “Europeans getting the “Africa Summit” treatment, and not liking it.” That is doubly funny because, last week, Africa’s leaders went to Yokohama in Japan for one of those conferences.
On the topic of mammals in places they ought not to be, Somaliland’s authorities have said they’ve seized 10 leopards that they believe were being illegally trafficked. Authorities found two suspects and the 10 leopards in Salahley, near the Ethiopian border. “The people who were driving are in police custody, and their cases have been prepared and forwarded to the prosecution,” said Abdinasir Hussein Said, director of wildlife at Somaliland’s environment ministry. Puntland’s president Said Deni expressed a similar concern this week about illegal fishing off the regional state’s coast. “I’m told disturbing things about what’s happening at sea, our fish are simply being taken,” Deni said. We reported on the scale of the problem in Puntland a few weeks ago. One disturbing thing that isn’t happening is a new ocean imminently opening up between the Somali Peninsula and the Ethiopian Highlands. A video that may have given false hope to Ethiopian nationalists seeking sea access has been deemed “MISLEADING” by AFP Factcheck.
A clip of Frank Caprio, the “nicest judge in the world”, who passed away earlier this week, has gone viral on Somali Twitter, in which he reacts to a Somali man gifting him three camels. “At first, I thought this must be a joke,” Caprio says in the short video, “but apparently it’s a very legitimate offer.” He later called Omar Hassan, and the clip includes that conversation. Check it out here. BBC Somali reported on his connection with the US’s Somali community. Staying in the US, far-right accounts have launched race-baiting attacks on Ohio State Representative Ismail Mohamed, a Democrat, after he posted a video outlining his work with other Somali legislators on Somalia. Another Ohio legislator, Jennifer Gross, invited attacks by quote-tweeting a far-right account that had shared the video, asking: “This is an Ohio State Representative. Thoughts?” This is obviously a trend. Take note.
We’re diving straight into the five stories we’re covering in more depth this week: the body of a Somali woman found in London; the US likely holding its line on Somaliland, per Semafor; Afyare Elmi speaks to Acacia about the state of the nation (spoiler: it isn’t good); and Minnesota Democrats pull their endorsement of Omar Fateh.
Society: Somali woman found dead in East London
An investigation is under way after 27-year-old Zahwa Salah Mukhtar, known as Zee, was found fatally injured on Chadwell Heath Lane, Romford, east London, at around 5:30 am on Saturday, 16 August. Despite the efforts of emergency services, she was pronounced dead at the scene. Police have confirmed that four men have been arrested: a 35-year-old on suspicion of murder, and another man, also 35, along with two younger men, aged 21 and 22, on suspicion of assisting an offender. “Our thoughts remain with Zahwa’s family and friends at this undoubtedly difficult time for them all,” said detective chief inspector Phil Clarke, who is leading the investigation. Zahwa’s family have paid tribute to her, describing her as “a kind and loving person with high aspirations in life” and someone whose “presence brought warmth to those around her.” Zahwa, who was deaf, was active in east London’s deaf community. In a post on Instagram, Hackney Deaf Club wrote: “She was a ray of sunshine and light!” Police are appealing for witnesses to come forward.
At a time when loved ones are grieving, the tragedy has been seized upon by far-right figures spreading misinformation. Tommy Robinson, a British right-wing Islamophobe, commented on X, framing the killing as “another honour killing on our shores”. Somalis in the comments section took him to task.
Politics: Is the US about to change policy on Somaliland? Doesn’t seem so certain.
An official close to the US State department has said to American outlet Semafor that Washington’s stance on Somalia has not shifted, despite mounting speculation about possible US recognition of Somaliland. “There has been no change in the US policy on Somalia,” the official said. However, the source did say that the US’s Somalia policy is set for review. The clarification comes after a swirl of attention in recent months, following high-profile calls from Capitol Hill for the US to consider recognising Somaliland. This has been the biggest topic on Somali socials this week. Among the most vocal advocates is Republican senator Ted Cruz, who has pressed US president Donald Trump to recognise Somaliland in a letter and later doubled down on his podcast, saying he is “optimistic that there is a real chance the president will recognise Somaliland,” praising the self-declared republic’s “real courage standing up to China and embracing Israel and the Abraham Accords.” Earlier this month, Trump said his country is “working on it,” when asked about Somaliland and Republican representative Scott Perry introduced another bill backing Somaliland recognition, though the legislation has stalled. Somaliland’s president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro), has sought to tip the scale in his favour on this issue — first by offering a naval base on its coast, and more recently by announcing his nomination of Donald Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize.
Not everyone is convinced recognition would serve US interests, or that it would be a great idea. Somaliland’s has become a more important question in US politics, as Faisal Roble, a well connected veteran Somali analyst pointed out on Brit Somali TV, but added that the US is primarily focussed on fighting IS-Somalia and al-Shabaab. Former US ambassador to Somalia Larry André warned it could “harm our relations with Somalilanders who support reunion with historic Somalia as a whole, with the Horn of Africa region, and with the African Union” in a widely discussed Substack post. He added it would “destabilise Somali clan relations” and risk “increasing the influence of rival powers.” André’s concern stems from unresolved disputes over Somaliland’s borders, which remain contested in the eastern regions of Sool and Sanaag by Puntland and the North East State and a feared lack of consensus about the potential impact.
Society: All living former Somali presidents unite against alleged land grabs
In an unprecedented joint letter, all of Somalia’s living former presidents—Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo (9th), Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (7th), and Abdiqasim Salad Hassan (5th)—have called on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to immediately halt what they describe as the opaque sale of public land in Mogadishu and the forced displacement of poor families living on it. Since returning to power in 2022, Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has faced repeated criticism over alleged public land sales, though the issue remains unclear. The government has not commented on the allegations. Citing the Somali Provisional Constitution and land distribution laws, the former presidents argued that none of the legal safeguards required by law have been observed, from allegedly bypassing the National Procurement Authority to failing to deposit proceeds into the treasury. The letter also appealed directly to businesspeople, warning them not to participate in what they called the “corruption and looting of national property.”
At present all we’ve seen are allegations, as no conclusive evidence has been made public proving that the government has sold land to private interests. The lack of transparency is part of the problem. But their appeal follows deadly clashes last week in Tarabuunka, Hodan district, Mogadishu, after government forces attempted to evict families from land authorities said belonged to the state. Residents, many of whom had lived in the area for decades, resisted, triggering heavy fighting. The government framed the operation as an effort to “ensure security and combat illegal firearms,” but critics across the Somali political spectrum strongly disagreed. Former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire called it “an assault on poor families.” Mohamed Hussein Roble, another recent former prime minister, described it as “a national tragedy.” Opposition leader Abdirahman Abdishakur accused the administration and private businesses of enabling “corrupt land grabs that destroy morale within the security forces.”
Futures: Somalia’s third republic could come to an end, warns Afyare Elmi
You’ve probably seen some dramatic headlines lately about al-Shabaab capturing town after town, raising serious questions—at least for some—about whether Mogadishu itself might be at risk. The Telegraph, for instance, reports Somalia is “gripped by fears of militant Islamic uprising” as al-Shabaab advances towards the capital. The Economist says “Somalia’s state-building project is in tatters”. The articles drew backlash from many Somalis who felt they overstated the threat. So, we spoke to Afyare Elmi, a prominent Somali academic, to help make sense of it all.
Question: Al-Shabaab has retaken a lot of south-central Somalia. Some say it’s a major crisis; others call it a temporary setback. Where do you stand?
Afyare Elmi: It’s been one step forward, two steps back on this. It’s not the end of the government, but we can’t dismiss those concerns. That said, it’s beyond reach for al-Shabaab to capture big cities like Beledweyne and Jowhar, for now.
Question: External actors are turning to local partners beyond Mogadishu. Have they given up on the Somali state or are they just making peace with reality?
AE: This reflects the failure of the national project in Mogadishu, which no longer appeals to other parts of Somalia. I don’t think dual-track engagement — speaking to both the central government and regional authorities — can be avoided. Mogadishu simply lacks the control and influence it wants to have.
Question: We have another election dispute, more talk of the need for dialogue and inclusivity. What’s really stopping Somalia from building stable, trusted institutions that can’t be bypassed by powerful politicians?
AE: The biggest obstacle is the behaviour of incumbent leaders. They rarely take elections seriously and when they do, it’s self-serving. That triggers pushback, rushed deals for ad hoc elections, and we’re back to square one. They won’t break the cycle.
Question: You recently asked if Somalia’s “third republic” can be saved. Nearly 20 years on, do you still think it can?
AE: Right now, collapse seems more likely than survival. If nothing changes, I’m afraid the third republic will definitely come to an end.
Diaspora: Minnesota’s Democratic Party revokes endorsement of Omar Fateh for Minneapolis mayor
The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL) has revoked its endorsement of State Senator Omar Fateh in the Minneapolis mayoral race, citing “substantial failures” in the 19 July convention process. Party Chair Richard Carlbom stated that the Constitution, Bylaws & Rules Committee found that “a mayoral candidate was errantly eliminated from contention,” prompting the committee to vacate the endorsement. Fateh, a socialist and the first Black mayoral candidate to receive the DFL’s backing in three decades, blasted the move as insider politics. “Twenty-eight party insiders voted to take away our endorsement behind closed doors. Mayor Frey’s team used every tactic they could because they didn’t have the votes. This is the disenfranchisement of thousands of Minneapolis caucus-goers. We’re still in this fight—and we’re going to win.”
The decision drew condemnation from prominent Somali-American leaders—Representative Ilhan Omar, State senator Zaynab Mohamed, and City Council Member Jamal Osman—who joined other DFL officials in calling it “inexcusable” and “a stain on our party.” In a joint statement, they warned it “sets a dangerous precedent,” undermines the will of delegates, and reflects “the influence of big money in our politics.” Omar echoed the sentiment on X, posting: “A small group, a majority living outside Minneapolis, met privately to overturn the will of delegates,” adding, “Unacceptable.” The revocation follows Fateh’s successful campaign, which drew comparisons to Zohran Mamdani’s victory over Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary in New York. Since announcing his candidacy and securing the DFL endorsement, Fateh has faced persistent racism from leading right-wing voices.
Across the gees
Last week, we reported that Julia Sebutinde, a Ugandan judge at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and a self-identified Christian Zionist, said she believed God was counting on her to “stand on the side of Israel” because we have entered the “End Times”. She famously dissented in a genocide case brought before the ICJ against Israel. In light of her apparent confession that her personal beliefs, rather than the legal merits of the case, are guiding her decisions, the Arab Organisation for Human Rights in the UK (AOHR UK) has called for her removal in a letter to the ICJ judges. AOHR UK argues that she has breached the impartiality clauses that govern how judges are expected to conduct themselves.
Last week, we also reported that South Sudan denied claims it was negotiating with Israel to help resettle Palestinians from Gaza there. The New York Times has now also reported that talks between South Sudan and Israel have taken place. Libya likewise denied involvement in such discussions, but Middle East Eye cites European and Middle Eastern sources who say those denials are likely false. Senior Israeli officials have on multiple occasions expressed support for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from Gaza.
Somalia, Djibouti, Sudan, and Egypt have joined 50 other Muslim countries in condemning a remark made by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which he expressed his belief in a “Greater Israel” during an interview with Israeli outlet i24. You’ve probably seen image but it would include large parts of Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and even as far as Türkiye.
Africa
Egypt has uncovered more ruins from a sunken city off Alexandria: buildings, artefacts, and a 2,000-year-old dock, all submerged in Abu Qir Bay. Officials say the site may be part of ancient Canopus, a key hub under the Ptolemies, a Greek dynasty that took over after Alexander, and later the Romans. It ruled for centuries before the sea did. Somewhere, Atlantis is seething.
Tangents
Sky News special correspondent Alex Crawford travelled to Puntland in northern Somalia this week, where she filmed a documentary about the authorities’ fight against IS-Somalia. Puntland’s troops have been fighting against IS-Somalia for months now. Check it out.
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